WN 430 · SAN → LAS

departs 3:29 PM PT · arrives 4:54 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 430 · SAN → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?