WN 4330 · TPA → BWI

departs 5:11 PM ET · arrives 7:36 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.16 in

BWI (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling7,714 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4330 · TPA → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?