Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4374
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 4374 · BWI → MCO
departs 1:45 PM ET · arrives 4:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 16h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 20%
Fri 10/2 20%
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±1 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
1pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.