WN 4381 · PHX → TUS

departs 7:38 PM MT · arrives 8:34 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±1 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to TUS?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TUS (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4381 · PHX → TUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to TUS?