WN 4386 · IND → MCI

took off 1:11 PM ET · landed 1:19 PM CT (scheduled 12:59 PM ET → 1:41 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MCI?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at MCI that day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IND

Weather at each end

IND (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCI (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.34 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4386 · IND → MCI

Odds over time

How late did it get to MCI?