Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4390
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 4390 · BWI → SRQ
departs 6:45 PM ET · arrives 9:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Tue 10/6 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at SRQ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SRQ?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at SRQ that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SRQ (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.26 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.