WN 4409 · ABQ → BWI

departs 12:52 PM MT · arrives 6:41 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ABQ that day

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ ABQ usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ABQ (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.33 in

BWI (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4409 · ABQ → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?