WN 4418 · RSW → MDW

took off 7:15 AM ET · landed 8:43 AM CT (scheduled 7:03 AM ET → 9:10 AM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MDW?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 7am departures from RSW are usually not late

Weather at each end

RSW (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

MDW (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.94 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4418 · RSW → MDW

Odds over time

How late did it get to MDW?