WN 4424 · SAN → BWI

took off 11:35 AM PT · expected to land 7:06 PM ET (scheduled 10:44 AM PT → 6:33 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

99% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BWI?

LIVE

On time or early
<1%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
79%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ SAN is busy at that time

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

BWI (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4424 · SAN → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?