WN 4431 · BWI → BOS

departs 7:49 PM ET · arrives 9:14 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from BWI are often late

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4431 · BWI → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?