WN 4445 · BNA → TPA

departs 6:31 PM CT · arrives 9:25 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

80% chance · ±0 pts +22 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
32%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from BNA are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.22 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4445 · BNA → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?