WN 4456 · PHX → PDX

departs 7:36 PM MT · arrives 10:25 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±2 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PDX?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PDX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4456 · PHX → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?