Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4468 LANDED 5:15 PM PT, ~3 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

WN 4468 · SAN → SJC

took off 4:15 PM PT · landed 5:15 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ 4pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

SJC (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4468 · SAN → SJC

Odds over time