WN 4469 · ORF → BWI

took off 8:53 AM ET · landed 9:35 AM ET (scheduled 8:49 AM ET → 10:02 AM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to BWI?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ ORF is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORF

Weather at each end

ORF (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BWI (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4469 · ORF → BWI

Odds over time

How late did it get to BWI?