WN 4470 · SAT → DAL

departs 11:33 AM CT · arrives 12:43 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DAL?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAT

↑ Other factors

↑ DAL is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ 11am departures from SAT are usually not late

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

DAL (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.14 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4470 · SAT → DAL

Odds over time

How late will it get to DAL?