Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4473 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

WN 4473 · SAN → SMF

departs 6:50 PM PT · arrives 7:57 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±2 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4473 · SAN → SMF

Odds over time