WN 4476 · FAT → DEN

departs 11:05 AM PT · arrives 2:23 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts −12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FAT

Weather at each end

FAT (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4476 · FAT → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?