Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4476 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

WN 4476 · SAN → FAT

departs 9:03 AM PT · arrives 9:52 AM PT

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ 9am departures from SAN are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into FAT at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

FAT (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4476 · SAN → FAT

Odds over time