WN 447 · DAL → OAK

departs 12:34 PM CT · arrives 2:30 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OAK?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 28 kt forecast at DAL that day

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↑ 12pm departures from DAL are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK

Weather at each end

DAL (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.14 in

OAK (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 447 · DAL → OAK

Odds over time

How late will it get to OAK?