WN 4480 · PVD → BWI

departs 3:04 PM ET · arrives 4:35 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late

↑ 3pm departures from PVD are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

PVD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

BWI (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4480 · PVD → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?