WN 4485 · SAT → SAN

departs 6:04 PM CT · arrives 7:07 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±0 pts +23 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
39%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SAT that day

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SAN that day

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

SAN (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4485 · SAT → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?