WN 4486 · MSY → MDW

took off 1:29 PM CT · expected to land 3:25 PM CT (scheduled 1:14 PM CT → 3:44 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MDW?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into MDW at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY

Weather at each end

MSY (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MDW (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.87 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4486 · MSY → MDW

Odds over time

How late will it get to MDW?