WN 4490 · DEN → SMF

took off 9:09 AM MT · expected to land 10:04 AM PT (scheduled 9:04 AM MT → 10:30 AM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SMF?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↑ SMF is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

SMF (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4490 · DEN → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?