WN 4495 · LGA → STL

took off 7:31 AM ET · landed 8:32 AM CT (scheduled 7:09 AM ET → 8:39 AM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to STL?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ LGA is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4495 · LGA → STL

Odds over time

How late did it get to STL?