Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4501
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 4501 · MCO → STL
departs 8:50 AM ET · arrives 10:20 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 6%
Fri 10/2 8%
Sat 10/3 8%
Sun 10/4 7%
Mon 10/5 7%
Tue 10/6 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
MCO is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
STL (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.