WN 4503 · PHX → SDF

departs 11:40 AM MT · arrives 5:58 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±0 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SDF?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from PHX are often late

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SDF (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4503 · PHX → SDF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SDF?