WN 4510 · DEN → SBA

departs 8:54 PM MT · arrives 10:25 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SBA?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SBA that day

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

SBA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4510 · DEN → SBA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBA?