WN 4514 · SEA → OAK

departs 7:05 PM PT · arrives 9:04 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OAK?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 7pm departures from SEA are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

OAK (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4514 · SEA → OAK

Odds over time

How late will it get to OAK?