Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4515
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 4515 · STL → AUS
departs 9:50 PM CT · arrives 11:55 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 12h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 73%
Fri 10/2 46%
Sat 10/3 21%
Sun 10/4 23%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at AUS that day
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↑
9pm departures from STL are often late
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.17 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.