WN 4521 · SFO → BUR

departs 8:34 AM PT · arrives 9:53 AM PT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±1 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to BUR?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 45% of the time recently

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ SFO is busy at that time

↓ Arrivals into BUR at that hour are usually not late

↓ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SFO that day

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

BUR (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4521 · SFO → BUR

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUR?