WN 4533 · DEN → BZN

departs 8:40 PM MT · arrives 10:19 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at BZN more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±9 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BZN?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at DEN that day

↑ 8pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ BZN usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.35 in

BZN (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4533 · DEN → BZN

Odds over time

How late will it get to BZN?