WN 4539 · SAN → SMF

took off 10:36 AM PT · landed 11:48 AM PT (scheduled 10:01 AM PT → 11:45 AM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SMF?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SAN is busy at that time

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ 10am departures from SAN are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Arrivals into SMF at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4539 · SAN → SMF

Odds over time

How late did it get to SMF?