WN 4547 · ELP → SAT

took off 9:56 AM MT · expected to land 12:02 PM CT (scheduled 9:54 AM MT → 12:28 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAT?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SAT that day

↑ SAT is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ELP (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4547 · ELP → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?