Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4559
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 4559 · BNA → BHM
departs 9:35 PM CT · arrives 10:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 18h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 30%
Fri 10/2 41%
Sat 10/3 24%
Sun 10/4 27%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at BHM more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BHM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at BHM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to BHM?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BHM
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BHM (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.