Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4569
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 4569 · DEN → IND
departs 6:20 PM MT · arrives 11:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Tue 10/6 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
40%
chance · ±0 pts
−24 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
40%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −24 pts in 24h
−24 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −20 pts in 24h
−20 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −14 pts in 24h
−14 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IND
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
IND (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.