WN 4589 · HOU → SAT

departs 2:46 PM CT · arrives 3:46 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, 0.3 in of rain forecast at HOU that day

↑ 2pm departures from HOU are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ SAT usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

HOU (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.34 in

SAT (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4589 · HOU → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?