WN 4600 · BWI → RIC

departs 7:43 PM ET · arrives 8:40 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?

45% chance · ±0 pts +16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to RIC?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
35%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from BWI are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RIC (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4600 · BWI → RIC

Odds over time

How late will it get to RIC?