Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4614
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 4614 · STL → BWI
departs 1:20 PM CT · arrives 4:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 12%
Fri 10/2 14%
Sat 10/3 7%
Sun 10/4 9%
Mon 10/5 10%
Tue 10/6 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↑
1pm departures from STL are often late
↑
Other factors
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.