WN 462 · BNA → BWI

departs 2:16 PM CT · arrives 5:08 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BWI (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 462 · BNA → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?