Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4635 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

WN 4635 · LAS → SAN

departs 6:25 PM PT · arrives 7:06 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±1 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SAN that day

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4635 · LAS → SAN

Odds over time