WN 4636 · HOU → MSY

departs 6:22 PM CT · arrives 7:35 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSY?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, 0.4 in of rain forecast at HOU that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from HOU are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY

Weather at each end

HOU (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.37 in

MSY (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4636 · HOU → MSY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSY?