WN 4640 · BWI → HOU

departs 5:42 PM ET · arrives 7:40 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HOU?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from BWI are often late

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, 0.4 in of rain forecast at HOU that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling9,533 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

HOU (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.38 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4640 · BWI → HOU

Odds over time

How late will it get to HOU?