WN 4644 · MCO → MDW

took off 1:16 PM ET · expected to land 2:39 PM CT (scheduled 12:59 PM ET → 2:59 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MDW?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ 12pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MDW (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.87 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4644 · MCO → MDW

Odds over time

How late will it get to MDW?