WN 467 · AUS → PHX

departs 2:53 PM CT · arrives 3:21 PM MT

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at AUS that day

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.08 in

PHX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 467 · AUS → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?