WN 4682 · MKE → PHX

departs 5:21 PM CT · arrives 7:13 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at MKE that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MKE (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.28 in

PHX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4682 · MKE → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?