Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4689 IN THE AIR (OFF 7:41 PM CT, ETA 8:40 PM MT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

WN 4689 · MEM → DEN

took off 7:41 PM CT · expected to land 8:40 PM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

29% chance · ±3 pts −29 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ MEM usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MEM (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4689 · MEM → DEN

Odds over time