WN 4696 · DEN → RDU

took off 11:48 AM MT · landed 4:37 PM ET (scheduled 11:19 AM MT → 4:50 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −23 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to RDU?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from DEN are often late

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

RDU (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4696 · DEN → RDU

Odds over time

How late did it get to RDU?