WN 470 · TPA → BWI

took off 3:08 PM ET · expected to land 5:11 PM ET (scheduled 2:50 PM ET → 5:21 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

2% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BWI?

LIVE

On time or early
98%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 2pm departures from TPA are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.09 in

BWI (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 470 · TPA → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?