Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4717
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Tomorrow
WN 4717 · LAS → SEA
departs 4:40 PM PT · arrives 7:20 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 20h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 19%
Tue 10/6 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±5 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
SEA is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SEA that day
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 11,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.