WN 4731 · DEN → OKC

took off 6:41 PM MT · expected to land 8:52 PM CT (scheduled 5:54 PM MT → 8:36 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at OKC more than 15 minutes late?

71% chance · ±0 pts −30 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to OKC?

LIVE

On time or early
29%
15–30 min late
54%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, visibility down to 0.75 mi, 2.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at OKC that day

↑ 5pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ OKC usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

OKC (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.91 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4731 · DEN → OKC

Odds over time

How late will it get to OKC?